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When Mike Dennison’s wife told him that Republican Sen. Steve Daines of Montana wouldn’t be seeking reelection this year, he thought she was joking. Daines, a two-term incumbent and close ally of President Trump, was a near shoo-in to win. After learning his wife was serious — that Daines had withdrawn his candidacy just three minutes before the March 4 filing deadline — Dennison, a veteran political journalist, was stunned.
Two days prior, Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke, another of the state’s incumbents, also announced he wasn’t running. As if that weren’t dynamic enough, Republican Sen. Tim Sheehy, who’s not up for reelection, got into an altercation on Capitol Hill on the same day that Daines pulled out of his race. Dennison said it was one of the most surprising weeks he’s seen in four decades of covering Montana politics.
“I really can’t recall anything like two incumbents who are in an excellent position to get reelected pulling out days before the end of the filing deadline,” Dennison said. “It’s pretty much unheard of.”
Half of Montana’s four seats in the U.S. Congress — a delegation that only turned all-Republican last year — are now open. In a tight election year, the changes could have national implications. Democrats must flip just three seats to gain control of the House, a possibility the party’s optimistic about. The Senate, which would require flipping four seats, is further out of reach. But some say it’s now possible.
Rep. Ryan Zinke, R-M.T., right, talks with a fellow congressman prior to a House committee meeting on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., in 2024. Zinke is another Montana Republican incumbent who is not seeking reelection. Credit: Rod Lamkey Jr./AP
“A week ago, nobody would have talked about Montana as a possibility for Democrats,” Bill Press, a liberal pundit, wrote in an op-ed for The Hill. But after Zinke’s and Daines’ bombshells, “the political landscape has improved significantly for Democrats.” Either way, the races are now bound to draw attention and dollars: One political scientist predicted this will be the most expensive midterm in Montana’s history.
ON MARCH 2, ZINKE announced he wouldn’t be seeking reelection in Montana’s western U.S. House District due to health reasons, specifically surgeries needed following his decades of service as a Navy SEAL. “It is better for Montana and America to have full-time representation in Congress than run the risk of uncertain absence and missed votes,” he said in a statement.
Three Republican candidates quickly jumped in: Aaron Flint, a radio talk show host who’s endorsed by Trump; Al “Doc” Olszewski, a surgeon and former state senator who lost the 2022 primary to Zinke by fewer than 2,000 votes; and Christi Jacobsen, Montana’s Secretary of State.
Democrats hope the open seat could be good news for them. Zinke’s race in the western district, which includes the blue cities of Missoula and Bozeman, was the closest statewide contest in 2024, with Zinke beating his Democratic opponent by just 7%.
The Democratic contenders are: Ryan Busse, a former firearms executive turned gun safety advocate who lost a bid for governor in 2024; Sam Forstag, a wildland firefighter and union leader; Russell Cleveland, a U.S. Navy veteran and father of seven; and Matt Rains, a U.S. Army veteran and rancher.
“Given the fact that the Democrats have four potentially strong candidates, I always thought they had a chance to make it a race,” Dennison said. “Now, I think they have more of a chance.”
TWO DAYS AFTER Zinke’s announcement, Daines, a 13-year veteran of Congress, made a sudden one of his own.
In a video message, Daines said he was withdrawing from the upcoming Senate race and looking forward to spending more time with his wife and seven grandchildren. (Some suspect that Daines’ political career is not over, and that he could ultimately be angling for a spot in Trump’s cabinet or the Montana governor’s office.)
Daines said the last-minute timing of his announcement was intended to prevent Democratic challengers, such as former Sen. Jon Tester, from joining the race and turning it into an expensive political bloodbath. (Tester has denied he would’ve done so.)
Daines handpicked his successor, Kurt Alme, the state’s U.S. attorney, who filed his Senate candidacy just five minutes before Daines removed his name from the running. Alme was quickly endorsed by Trump and other top Republicans. The secretive plan, which prevented others from entering the race, rankled people on both sides of the aisle.
“Democracy usually involves voters, primaries, debates, competition. But apparently we’re trying something new now — succession planning,” said one op-ed in The Daily Montanan.
Montana U.S. Attorney Kurt Alme, who was handpicked by Daines as his successor, answers questions in 2021, when he was serving as Montana Budget Director. Credit: Thom Bridge/Independent Record via AP“Eight minutes. That is what Montana voters got. Eight minutes between the moment Kurt Alme’s name appeared on the filing system and the moment the window slammed shut forever,” said another opinion piece. “The people of Montana deserve a Senate race where they — and not a coordinated group of insiders — get to decide who wins.”
“Eight minutes. That is what Montana voters got. Eight minutes between the moment Kurt Alme’s name appeared on the filing system and the moment the window slammed shut forever.”
Commenting on the fallout, Lee Banville, director of the University of Montana School of Journalism, said, “The thing that I think a lot of people are watching is: Does this sow more division within the Republican Party? Or is it just a momentary blip that will fade in the next couple of weeks or months?”
Daines is not the first one to pull such a move. Last fall, a Democratic congressman from Illinois announced his retirement after the filing deadline, leaving only his top aide on the ballot. His actions were condemned by many, including those in his own party.
DESPITE THE CONTROVERSY surrounding Daines’ decision, this race could be a hard one for Republicans to lose: The only opponent with name recognition is Seth Bodnar, the former president of the University of Montana, who joined the race as an independent the day before Daines’ announcement. (He still needs to gather over 13,000 signatures before his name can officially appear on the ballot.)
Bodnar is part of a growing trend of left-leaning independents running in red states. A slew of independents ran in Utah in 2024, with some performing better than expected. Todd Achilles, a former Democratic lawmaker, switched his affiliation to independent before entering this year’s Senate race in Idaho.
In Montana, Bodnar faces an uphill climb: No third-party candidate has ever won a major race in the state. And, though Bodnar allegedly has Tester’s support, he’s received the cold shoulder from Democrats, who worry he will split the non-Republican vote.
Sen. Sheehy capped off the week by skirmishing with a U.S. Marine who was protesting the war in Iran at a committee hearing. Sheehy jumped in to help Capitol Police officers remove the Marine; moments later, the protestor’s arm was broken in the scuffle.
Sheehy defended his involvement, despite the violent results. “I decided to help out and deescalate the situation,” Sheehy wrote in a post on the social platform X. “This gentleman came to the Capitol looking for a confrontation, and he got one.”
Though Sheehy’s actions don’t have national political consequences, reporting from the Montana Free Press shows that “Sheehy” was a more popular search term than “Zinke” or “Daines” this past week.
As for how this news will play out among everyday Montanans, Banville, the journalism professor, said most of them probably aren’t following the state’s political machinations too carefully.
“We don’t really know how voters feel about all this stuff until we kind of allow it to settle in,” Banville said. “And that is going to take some time.”
What Banville does know is that a seemingly quiet election year has suddenly gotten a lot more interesting.
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